It's been a while since I have posted here.
I used to contribute to a couple other forums and have been betting NASCAR for a half dozen years online now. I thought I would rejoin by offering up my NASCAR betting philosophy.
At the beginning of a NASCAR season, sportsbooks are generally well behind good handicappers. However, since there is a significant juice attached to each wagering opportunity there may still be limited opportunity for profit.
As a fan, it is easy for me to focus lots of attention on drivers, teams, rule changes, silly season swaps, rumors, deals and the myriad of other aspects of this sport that make it entertaining. All of the information absorbed over the off season is very valuable. Being able to weigh that information as far as wagering is concerned, is the crucial requirement of a good handicapper in the beginning of the season. This is evident in that there are often many betting opportunities in the first 7-8 races of the season.
However, as the season progresses the quantity and quality of these opportunities tends to tail off as the lines the books deal get sharper and sharper. The reason is: the more esoteric information gathered over the offseason becomes more and more stale and the statistical information gathered from each race becomes far more determining of a factor of future results.
Statistical information is far easier to correlate with massive databases, computers, etc., thus sportsbooks have a slight edge as the information rolls in with each practice, qualifying and race. This narrows the advantage that the capper enjoys over the sportsbook and you will begin to see fewer and fewer lines that offer value as the season progresses.
This reliance on number crunching is what gets most sportsbook lines sharper and sharper but it also allows for wayward lines when other "outside" non-statistical factors influence the outcome of an event.
I used to contribute to a couple other forums and have been betting NASCAR for a half dozen years online now. I thought I would rejoin by offering up my NASCAR betting philosophy.
At the beginning of a NASCAR season, sportsbooks are generally well behind good handicappers. However, since there is a significant juice attached to each wagering opportunity there may still be limited opportunity for profit.
As a fan, it is easy for me to focus lots of attention on drivers, teams, rule changes, silly season swaps, rumors, deals and the myriad of other aspects of this sport that make it entertaining. All of the information absorbed over the off season is very valuable. Being able to weigh that information as far as wagering is concerned, is the crucial requirement of a good handicapper in the beginning of the season. This is evident in that there are often many betting opportunities in the first 7-8 races of the season.
However, as the season progresses the quantity and quality of these opportunities tends to tail off as the lines the books deal get sharper and sharper. The reason is: the more esoteric information gathered over the offseason becomes more and more stale and the statistical information gathered from each race becomes far more determining of a factor of future results.
Statistical information is far easier to correlate with massive databases, computers, etc., thus sportsbooks have a slight edge as the information rolls in with each practice, qualifying and race. This narrows the advantage that the capper enjoys over the sportsbook and you will begin to see fewer and fewer lines that offer value as the season progresses.
This reliance on number crunching is what gets most sportsbook lines sharper and sharper but it also allows for wayward lines when other "outside" non-statistical factors influence the outcome of an event.
